Nationwide’s June data gives a snapshot of the housing market immediately before the Brexit referendum. It shows a functioning market with decent price growth but limited supply – a languid calm before the storm. 

Unfortunately this data is about as much use in predicting the future course of the property market as sun-dappled photos of the summer of 1914. It’s a historical record of a lost age before Europe changed forever. The referendum result has since plunged the property market into a ‘hard reset’, especially in the higher price brackets.

While we can’t be sure how much things will slow, it’s inevitable that more nervous investors will sit on their hands while the opportunists circle. Prime central London – where most property purchases are discretionary – is the most exposed to such confidence-sapping doubts. Outside London the impact will be less dramatic, but the uncertainty will do little to unblock the supply shortage. Would-be sellers will be more likely to stay put, and this tightening of supply may prop up prices to a degree.

All this points to a soft landing rather than a crash, but the uncertainty is such that normal rules have been suspended. What is clear that the brisk, 5.1 percent rate of average annual price growth the Nationwide recorded in June is likely to be the high water mark for the property market for some time to come.”